| From The Newspaper (9) Tsunami |
November 17, 2022
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| The main article on the front page of the newspaper on September 21st, which occupied about two-thirds of the page, was about the prediction of a tsunami. The title was, "Death toll of the prefecture is predicted to be 7,100 maximum." The subtitle read, "Prefectural report announced about great earthquakes and their damages from tsunami ~ a higher evacuation rate will decrease damage by up to 80%." Next to the article was a map of this prefecture which had 12 municipalities on the coast. For each of the three earthquake scenarios, there was the number of the death toll as well as a description of the physical damage. The three earthquakes' scenario places are located on the 'Japan Trench', 'Chishima Trench' and 'Northern Eastern Pacific Ocean Offshore'. 'Japan Trench' earthquake's death toll was between 2,700 and 7,100; 'Chishima Trench', 690 ~1800; 'Pacific Ocean', 3,200 ~4,200. The article explained that the 7,100 death toll figure is higher than the number of deaths that happened in the Great East Japan Earthquake, including missing people, in this prefecture, which was 6,254. The premise of the prediction was as follows: ・Earthquake Scale : Magnitude 9 ・Evacuation Rate : 50% (The number of people who will evacuate soon after the earthquake.) ・Evacuation Means : on foot (Walking speed is 2.24 km per hour.) ・Tsunami Height : 30m ・Earthquake Occurrence Timing (3 patterns) : midnight in winter, noon in summer, evening in winter. The article added that in the case of walking, elderly people and disabled people's  support is necessary, therefore evacuation training is important. It also pointed out that in the report the tsunami will go over the sea walls, which were constructed just after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Some specialists questioned this.Actually, when he had known about the height of the sea walls which were designed a couple of years after the disaster, it was about 15m, he felt strange because the height of tsunami of the Great East Japan Earthquake was over 30m. Recently, in October, he went to a coastal area to fish. Fishing in that area was the first time after the Great East Japan Earthquake, because he hadn't felt like fishing there. It was also the first time after the sea walls were completed. After the earthquake he had a couple of chances to go to the disaster areas, but it was the first time to see the completion of the walls. They were about 15 meters high. They looked to be disturbing a good view, but it couldn't be helped. He had read that an economist recommended making residential areas on the hills and making factories, parks, and sports facilities on the seaside. In this case, 15m sea walls aren't necessary. But, he didn't support this idea. People have been living by the sea for thousands of years. As the mountains were close, there was no room besides the current areas, unless to demolish the mountains. Making 30m high walls isn't realistic, either. Maybe it is too expensive and will ruin the ocean views completely. He checked on the internet and found a graph which showed the height of the tsunami in the Great East Japan Earthquake in 26 points in the three prefectures (Miyagi, Fukushima, and Iwate). In the 26 points/municipalities, the highest was Tomioka (21.1m); the second, Ofunato (16.7m); then, Futaba (16.5m), Rikuzentakata (15.8m), Namie (15.5m). The others, 10~14m : 6 municipalities, 5~9m : 11 municipalities, under 5m : 4 municipalities. The Meteorological Agency measured at those points, which are the sea banks. He also learned that if there were no sea walls (or walls were low), the tsunami would run up to the land. In the Great East Japan Earthquake, the highest wave running up in this prefecture area was 40.1m. (About the past, 38.2m in 1896, 28.3m in 1933.) So, his 30m of the height of the tsunami was a misunderstanding, it meant the height of "wave running up". So, the 15m sea walls seem to be meaningful. The prefectural report was based on the national governmental prediction, which was announced several months before. When the Great East Japan Earthquake happened, it wasn't predicted at all and said to be a "once-in-a-1,000 years" event. He didn't trust the government's prediction, but believed that preparing anytime is important. |
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No.496
*death toll :死者数
*evacuation :避難
*up to :まで
*Japan Trench :日本海溝
*Chishima Trench :千島海溝
*Northern Eastern Pacific Ocean Offshore :東北太平洋沖
*premise :前提
*demolish :破壊する
*Meteorological Agency :気象庁